To make money in the stock market it is necessary to have a disciplined approach to
trading. We also believe that it is also important to keep things simple. While our
goal is to keep things simple, the trading rules might initially seem a bit complex.
However, once you learn the rules and you trade with discipline, you will make
money in the stock market.
Swing trading allows you to make money when the market is bullish, or bearish, or
just going sideways. That is why it has a distinct advantage over other approaches
to investing. The goal is to make money, not to rest one’s hopes on the future of a
stock, a sector, or the economy.
4.1 What is Swing Trading
Everyone is familiar with waves. A wave alternates from positive to negative, then
to positive and negative, and so on. Waves are found in nature – you see waves
when you throw a rock into a lake. Sound is transmitted in waves. And when stock
prices change, they follow a wave-like pattern. The wave is rarely as orderly a sine
wave, but they are waves nevertheless, and we use these waves in Swing Trading.
4.2 Let’s Look at an Up Trends
The chart below shows the price movement of Myriad Genetics (MYGN) in an
uptrend. Notice that after the price moves up, it takes a rest, or pulls back. When
we swing trade an uptrend, we buy on the pull-back.
An uptrend can be identified by a series of higher highs and higher lows (the bottom
of each pull-back). In other words, an uptrend is a series of successive rallies with
each rally going higher than the previous one and each pull-back stopping above the
previous one.
The price movement looks more like the zig-zag of a saw blade than a sinusoid, but
once an uptrend is established the pattern tends to repeat itself. In swing trading
we capitalize on the predictability of the pattern. We buy during the pull-back to
increase our chances of making a profit.
The Steps in Swing Trading
First, restrict your selection to the universe of stocks that fulfill certain criteria.
Choose stocks that …
• Have a price of at least $7
• Have an average daily volume of at least 500,000 shares
Then …
STEP 1 – Identify a stock that is in an uptrend or a downtrend.
STEP 2 – For stocks in an uptrend, identify those that are experiencing a pull-back.
For stocks in a downtrend, identify those that are experiencing a pull-up.
STEP 3 – Once an appropriate candidate is identified, place a limit order to buy
(uptrend) or sell short (downtrend) the stock based on the Master Plan.
STEP 4 – Once a stock has been traded (a position opened), place a stop-loss order
to limit downside risk and place a limit order to identify the price at which
you will take profits. (Ideally, these two orders are placed together as an
OCO (One Cancels Other) order; this is sometimes called an OCA (One
Cancels All) order.
STEP 5 – At the end of each day, adjust the stop loss prices based on the Master
Plan.
4.5 What Can You Expect?
First – only a portion of your trades will be executed. The Master Plan is designed
to only trade stocks that initially move in the anticipated direction. If the
price moves in the opposite direction (continues pulling back or pulling
up), the trade is not placed.
Second – you will be holding positions for a limited amount of time. While swing
trading is not day trading, you are only holding positions until targets are
met.
Third – some of your trades will result in losses, however losses are minimized by
the Master Plan which raises the stops as the stock price rises; this is
known as trailing stops. Being disciplined, and following the Master
Plan will insure that profits exceed losses which means you will make
money.
